the possible macroeconomic impact on the uk of an influenza pandemic CORD-Papers-2022-06-02 (Version 1)

Title: The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.
Abstract: Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics allowing for school closures would be short-lived constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5% respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5% compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters.
Published: 2010
Journal: Health economics
DOI: 10.1002/hec.1554
DOI_URL: http://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1554
Author Name: Keogh Brown Marcus R
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/keogh_brown_marcus_r
Author Name: Wren Lewis Simon
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/wren_lewis_simon
Author Name: Edmunds W John
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/edmunds_w_john
Author Name: Beutels Philippe
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/beutels_philippe
Author Name: Smith Richard D
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/smith_richard_d
license: unk
license_url: [unknown license]
source_x: Medline
source_x_url: https://www.medline.com/
pubmed_id: 19816886
pubmed_id_url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19816886
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1554 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19816886/
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