the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 covid 19 on health systems and household CORD-Papers-2022-06-02 (Version 1)

Title: The impact of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on health systems and household resources in Africa and South Asia
Abstract: Background. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics strain health systems and households. Health systems in Africa and South Asia may be particularly at risk due to potential high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease large household sizes and limited healthcare capacity. Methods. We investigated the impact of an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic on health system resources and costs and household costs in Karachi Delhi Nairobi Addis Ababa and Johannesburg. We adapted a dynamic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease to capture country-specific demography and contact patterns. The epidemiological model was then integrated into an economic framework that captured city-specific health systems and household resource use. Findings. The cities severely lack intensive care beds healthcare workers and financial resources to meet demand during an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic. A highly mitigated COVID-19 epidemic under optimistic assumptions may avoid overwhelming hospital bed capacity in some cities but not critical care capacity. Interpretation. Viable mitigation strategies encompassing a mix of responses need to be established to expand healthcare capacity reduce peak demand for healthcare resources minimise progression to critical care and shield those at greatest risk of severe disease.
Published: 2020-05-08
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.06.20092734
DOI_URL: http://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092734
Author Name: Davies Nicholas G
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/davies_nicholas_g
Author Name: Sweeney Sedona
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/sweeney_sedona
Author Name: Torres Rueda Sergio
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/torres_rueda_sergio
Author Name: Bozzani Fiammetta
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/bozzani_fiammetta
Author Name: Kitson Nichola
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/kitson_nichola
Author Name: Barasa Edwine
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/barasa_edwine
Author Name: Procter Simon
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/procter_simon
Author Name: Quaife Matthew
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/quaife_matthew
Author Name: Group LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID Working
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/group_lshtm_centre_for_mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_diseases_covid_worki
Author Name: Eggo Rosalind M
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/eggo_rosalind_m
Author Name: Vassall Anna
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/vassall_anna
Author Name: Jit Mark
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/jit_mark
license: cc-by
license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
source_x: MedRxiv; WHO
source_x_url: https://www.who.int/
who_covidence_id: #20092734
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.06.20092734v1?rss=1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092734
has_full_text: FALSE
G_ID: the_impact_of_coronavirus_disease_2019_covid_19_on_health_systems_and_household