estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence CORD-Papers-2022-06-02 (Version 1)

Title: Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies
Abstract: Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and therefore may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
Published: 2021-06-03
Journal: Wellcome Open Res
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.1
DOI_URL: http://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.1
Author Name: Rees Eleanor M
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/rees_eleanor_m
Author Name: Waterlow Naomi R
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/waterlow_naomi_r
Author Name: Lowe Rachel
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/lowe_rachel
Author Name: Kucharski Adam J
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/kucharski_adam_j
sha: 51eb8b6bd5d090d209ee101038772ca465527903
license: cc-by
license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
source_x: Medline; PMC; WHO
source_x_url: https://www.medline.com/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/https://www.who.int/
pubmed_id: 34708157
pubmed_id_url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34708157
pmcid: PMC8517721
pmcid_url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8517721
url: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34708157/
has_full_text: TRUE
Keywords Extracted from Text Content: coronavirus 2 human coronaviruses SARS-CoV-2 children HCoV green HCoVs Figure 3B adults26 Flu Watch IgG antibodies ω Alpha HKU1 FOI ( alpha HCoVs 38-40 COVID-19 Figure 2 sera Figure 1 Figure 4 ... HCoV-NL63 ( OC43 human alpha (HCoV-229E participants children HCoV Alpha (α) HCov-HKU1 z(a FOI (α) λ 2 Figure S1 SARS-CoV-2 1 Monto 22 Figure 3A HCoV-HKU1 line beta coronaviruses 7 measles λ 1 FOI (α Figure S4 coronaviruses FOI HCoV patients HCoV-229E individuals Reed UK FOI (Alpha) FOI, α antigen HCoV's lambda1 coronavirus disease 2019 coronavirus strains alpha coronaviruses varicella zoster NL63 IgG antibody infants SARSCoV2 human coronavirus strains HCoV-NL63 Figure 4 33 cellular human coronaviruses SARS-CoV-2 Figure S2 beta ○ λ 480.8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9696-4 CF lines LLOD HCoV-OC43 Chan Human Reed 9 Figure S3 RJags Monto (1974 https://doi.org/10.21956/wellcomeopenres.18416.r46084 © Edridge human coronaviruses SARS-CoV-2 HCoV antibodies children Wendelboe HCoV Monto (1974) Herzog S. 5 Chan (2009) CF Sarateanu (1980) HCoV-OC43 IgG Shao (2007 correlated.2) I alpha-and beta-CoVs
Extracted Text Content in Record: First 5000 Characters:Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 -1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 -7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 -9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel beta coronavirus, was first detected in December 2019 and has since spread globally causing high morbidity and mortality. There is evidence of some short-term sterilising immunity (protection against reinfection and symptoms) following infection with SARS-CoV-2 1 , but also some reports of reinfection 2 . However, there is currently limited evidence on the duration of immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the limited duration of SARS-CoV-2 circulation to date, the dynamics of antibody responses of seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) could provide insights into the possible long-term potential for reinfections 3 . The duration of immunity following infection is of both clinical and epidemiological importance, as it provides information as to how long previously infected individuals may no longer be at risk of infection and disease, as well as influencing the long-term dynamics of epidemics 4 and enabling the interpretation of population-wide serological data 5 . There are four circulating HCoVs: HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E (alpha coronaviruses), HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (beta coronaviruses). HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E were first identified in the 1960s, but HCoV-NL63 and HCov-HKU1 were not identified until 2004 and 2005 respectively 6, 7 . Like SARS-CoV-2, these typically cause respiratory tract infections. A small number of human challenge studies have looked at the duration of immunity to these viruses. Callow et al. 8 found that six out of nine participants were reinfected when challenged with HCoV-229E again one year later, as measured by a rise in IgG antibodies and viral shedding. However, the period of viral shedding was shorter following the second inoculation, and none of the participants developed symptoms. Reed 9 found that reinfection did not occur when participants were re-inoculated with a homologous strain approximately one year following infection, but participants had partial immunity against reinfection with a heterologous strain. Taken together these results suggest that immunity against infection with a homologous strain could last at least one year 8,9 . There are also a small number of cohort and communitybased surveillance studies which have looked at reinfection of seasonal HCoV. One study looked at HCoV reinfection in a small cohort of ten individuals over 35 years and found the median reinfection times to be 30 months, but with reinfection often occurring at 12 months 10 . A larger study looking at data from Flu Watch, a community cohort study which measures the incidence and transmission of respiratory viruses, found that between 2006 and 2011, eight subjects were reinfected with a seasonal HCoV (of 216 with confirmed first infection), and the time between reinfection ranged from 7 to 56 weeks. None of these reinfections were with the same strain, providing some evidence of lasting immunity 11 . However, a community surveillance study conducted in Kenya in 2010 over six months found evidence of high numbers of repeat infections of HCoV-NL63 (20.9%), HCoV-OC43 (5.7%), and HCoV-229E (4.0%). The majority of these reinfections showed reduced virus replication in the second infection, and a lower proportion of individuals had symptoms following the second infection 12 . Furthermore, another study conducted in New York City found that reinfections with the same strain can occur within one year 13 . Care should be taken with the interpretation of these studies since we do not know the background exposure rates, and this will influence the estimates of duration of immunity. If infections are fully immunising -as is the case for pathogens like measles, pertussis and varicella zoster -then seroprevalence would be expected to accumulate over time 14 , and hence with age, with little waning of responses. The dynamics can therefore be captured with catalytic models of seroconversion 15
Keywords Extracted from PMC Text: Pija cellular Chan Human NL63 z(a)=λλ+ω(1−e−a(λ+ω human coronavirus strains ω FOI, α children a0z(a)=(λ1λ1+ω(1−e−a0(λ1+ω))− λ2λ2+ω)(e−(λ2+ω)(a−a0 Attackrate=1−e−λ 2.53 - 13.56 coronavirus FOI (α) λ1 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4618262 HCoVs HCoV-HKU1 erees/seasonalHCoV individuals HCoV patients CrI IgG antibody samples HKU1 HCoV-OC43 varicella zoster measles Nija coronaviruses alpha (HCoV-229E OC43 HCoV-229E HCoVs Reed antigen 548.2 beta HCoV HCoV's IgG antibodies λ CF alpha line alpha coronaviruses 7.52 - 9.94 contacts HCov-HKU1 FOI (α UK 18–30 λ2 RJags HCoV-NL63 FOI FOI (Alpha) human coronaviruses sera z(a infants Reed SARS-CoV-2 SARS-CoV-2 human beta coronaviruses coronavirus disease 2019 HCoV-NL63 ( 480.8 COVID-19 λ 1 participants Flu Watch
Extracted PMC Text Content in Record: First 5000 Characters:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel beta coronavirus, was first detected in December 2019 and has since spread globally causing high morbidity and mortality. There is evidence of some short-term sterilising immunity (protection against reinfection and symptoms) following infection with SARS-CoV-2 1 , but also some reports of reinfection 2 . However, there is currently limited evidence on the duration of immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the limited duration of SARS-CoV-2 circulation to date, the dynamics of antibody responses of seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) could provide insights into the possible long-term potential for reinfections 3 . The duration of immunity following infection is of both clinical and epidemiological importance, as it provides information as to how long previously infected individuals may no longer be at risk of infection and disease, as well as influencing the long-term dynamics of epidemics 4 and enabling the interpretation of population-wide serological data 5 . There are four circulating HCoVs: HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E (alpha coronaviruses), HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 (beta coronaviruses). HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E were first identified in the 1960s, but HCoV-NL63 and HCov-HKU1 were not identified until 2004 and 2005 respectively 6, 7 . Like SARS-CoV-2, these typically cause respiratory tract infections. A small number of human challenge studies have looked at the duration of immunity to these viruses. Callow et al. 8 found that six out of nine participants were reinfected when challenged with HCoV-229E again one year later, as measured by a rise in IgG antibodies and viral shedding. However, the period of viral shedding was shorter following the second inoculation, and none of the participants developed symptoms. Reed 9 found that reinfection did not occur when participants were re-inoculated with a homologous strain approximately one year following infection, but participants had partial immunity against reinfection with a heterologous strain. Taken together these results suggest that immunity against infection with a homologous strain could last at least one year 8, 9 . There are also a small number of cohort and community-based surveillance studies which have looked at reinfection of seasonal HCoV. One study looked at HCoV reinfection in a small cohort of ten individuals over 35 years and found the median reinfection times to be 30 months, but with reinfection often occurring at 12 months 10 . A larger study looking at data from Flu Watch, a community cohort study which measures the incidence and transmission of respiratory viruses, found that between 2006 and 2011, eight subjects were reinfected with a seasonal HCoV (of 216 with confirmed first infection), and the time between reinfection ranged from 7 to 56 weeks. None of these reinfections were with the same strain, providing some evidence of lasting immunity 11 . However, a community surveillance study conducted in Kenya in 2010 over six months found evidence of high numbers of repeat infections of HCoV-NL63 (20.9%), HCoV-OC43 (5.7%), and HCoV-229E (4.0%). The majority of these reinfections showed reduced virus replication in the second infection, and a lower proportion of individuals had symptoms following the second infection 12 . Furthermore, another study conducted in New York City found that reinfections with the same strain can occur within one year 13 . Care should be taken with the interpretation of these studies since we do not know the background exposure rates, and this will influence the estimates of duration of immunity. If infections are fully immunising – as is the case for pathogens like measles, pertussis and varicella zoster – then seroprevalence would be expected to accumulate over time 14 , and hence with age, with little waning of responses. The dynamics can therefore be captured with catalytic models of seroconversion 15 , which enables estimation of the force of infection (FOI, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection and seroconvert). In contrast, when individuals serorevert, i.e. their immunity wanes by the progressive loss of protective antibodies against a disease over time, 'reverse catalytic models' can jointly estimate FOI and waning of immunity 16 . Variation in FOI with age may further complicate the dynamics, particularly if a high infection rate in children is followed by a lower rate in adults as well as waning of seroprevalence. To understand how seroconversion, waning and age-variation in infection risk could shape population-level seroprevalence, we combine age-stratified data with age-structured reverse catalytic models, and estimate the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion for the four seasonal coronaviruses. Human seroprevalence from four different human coronavirus strains (229E, HKU1, NL63, and OC43) were identified in a recent systematic review 7 . Studies which did not i
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