a systematic review and meta analysis reveals long and dispersive incubation period CORD-Papers-2021-10-25 (Version 1)

Title: A systematic review and meta-analysis reveals long and dispersive incubation period of COVID-19
Abstract: Background: The incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 remains uncertain, which has important implications for estimating transmission potential, forecasting epidemic trends, and decision-making in prevention and control. Purpose: To estimate the central tendency and dispersion for incubation period of COVID-19 and, in turn, assess the effect of a certain length of quarantine for close contacts in active monitoring. Data Sources: PubMed, Embase, medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv, searched up to April 26, 2020 Study Selection: COVID-19 studies that described either individual-level incubation period data or summarized statistics for central tendency and dispersion measures of incubation period were recruited. Data Extraction: From each recruited study, either individual-level incubation period data or summarized statistics for central tendency and dispersion measures were extracted, as well as population characteristics including sample size, average age, and male proportion. Data Synthesis: Fifty-six studies encompassing 4 095 cases were included in this meta-analysis. The estimated median incubation period for general transmissions was 5.8 days [95% confidence interval (95%CI), 5.3 to 6.2 d]. Median and dispersion were higher for SARS-CoV-2 incubation compared to other viral respiratory infections. Furthermore, about 20 in 10 000 contacts in active monitoring would develop symptoms after 14 days, or below 1 in 10 000 for young-age infections or asymptomatic transmissions. Limitation: Small sample sizes for subgroups; some data were possibly used repeatedly in different studies; limited studies for outside mainland China; non-negligible intra-study heterogeneity. Conclusion: The long, dispersive incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 contributes to the global spread of COVID-19. Yet, a 14-day quarantine period is sufficient to trace and identify symptomatic infections, which while could be justified according to a better understanding of the crucial parameters.
Published: 6/22/2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.20.20134387
DOI_URL: http://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.20.20134387
Author Name: Wei, Y
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/wei_y
Author Name: Wei, L
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/wei_l
Author Name: Liu, Y
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/liu_y
Author Name: Huang, L
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/huang_l
Author Name: Shen, S
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/shen_s
Author Name: Zhang, R
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/zhang_r
Author Name: Chen, J
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/chen_j
Author Name: Zhao, Y
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/zhao_y
Author Name: Shen, H
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/shen_h
Author Name: Chen, F
Author link: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/author/chen_f
sha: 3d921c03dc23ee850655ddfd9d5ebe3956d70bf8
license: medrxiv
source_x: MedRxiv; WHO
source_x_url: https://www.who.int/
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.20.20134387v1?rss=1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.20.20134387
has_full_text: TRUE
Keywords Extracted from Text Content: COVID-19 medRxiv medRxiv preprint 2 PubMed bioRxiv SARS-CoV-2 medRxiv F.C., Y.W. bioRxiv individuals coronavirus disease 2019 measles COVID-19 medRxiv preprint 6 medRxiv preprint 10 medRxiv preprint People's Republic B (17) SARS-CoV medRxiv preprint CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license e σ medRxiv preprint 7 SARS-CoV-2 young-age Young-age COVID-19 patients pulmonary medRxiv preprint 9 globe Wuhan adenovirus human coronavirus coronavirus people × Egger tests Figure 4G Hubei Province
Extracted Text Content in Record: First 5000 Characters:The incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 remains uncertain, which has important implications for estimating transmission potential, forecasting epidemic trends, and decision-making in prevention and control. Purpose: To estimate the central tendency and dispersion for incubation period of COVID-19 and, in turn, assess the effect of a certain length of quarantine for close contacts in active monitoring. Data Sources: PubMed, Embase, medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv, : medRxiv preprint 2 / 16 Data Extraction: From each recruited study, either individual-level incubation period data or summarized statistics for central tendency and dispersion measures were extracted, as well as population characteristics including sample size, average age, and male proportion. Data Synthesis: Fifty-six studies encompassing 4 095 cases were included in this meta-analysis. The estimated median incubation period for general transmissions was 5.8 days [95% confidence interval (95%CI), 5.3 to 6.2 d]. Median and dispersion were higher for SARS-CoV-2 incubation compared to other viral respiratory infections. Furthermore, about 20 in 10 000 contacts in active monitoring would develop symptoms after 14 days, or below 1 in 10 000 for young-age infections or asymptomatic transmissions. Limitation: Small sample sizes for subgroups; some data were possibly used repeatedly in different studies; limited studies for outside mainland China; non-negligible intra-study heterogeneity. The long, dispersive incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 contributes to the global spread of COVID-19. Yet, a 14-day quarantine period is sufficient to trace and identify symptomatic infections, which while could be justified according to a better understanding of the crucial parameters. In December 2019, a cluster of pneumonia cases with unclear pathogenesis was reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. This virus was named by World Health Organization (WHO) as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease it caused was named as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) on February 11, 2020 (1). Consequently, COVID-19 was urgently classified as a Class B communicable disease and managed as a Class A communicable disease in accordance with the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Disease (2) . Meanwhile, the COVID-19 epidemic continued to spread around the globe, with rapid increases in case numbers in European and American countries, and a looming threat in resource-limited settings across Africa (3) . The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of May 25, the pandemic had spread to 188 countries on six continents, with a total of over 5 million diagnosed cases worldwide (4) . Defining the incubation period of any infectious disease is crucial to evaluate transmission potential, estimate epidemic trends, and inform active monitoring and/or mandatory quarantine policies. The novel pathogenesis of COVID-19 has produced varied epidemiological characteristics from previous coronavirus-derived pulmonary infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). SARS and MERS were rarely transmitted during the asymptomatic period (5, 6) . In contrast, increasing evidence indicates that individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 could be infectious during the asymptomatic incubation period (7) (8) (9) . Thus, knowledge of length and dispersion of incubation period is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control. In addition, transmission dynamics models are designed to mimic the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a nonlinear fashion, and are broadly used for long-term forecasting and evaluating the effect of prevention measures (10) . However, many parameters associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission are poorly understood, including the incubation period, resulting in a biased prediction (11) . Multiple studies have explored the incubation period for COVID-19, but conclusions remain controversial due to limited sample sizes for each study and considerable heterogeneity between studies (12, 13) . . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted June 22, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.20.20134387 doi: medRxiv preprint Given the continuing global spread of COVID-19, a further investigation of viral incubation by a systematic review and meta-analysis could provide urgently needed support to improve the understanding of COVID-19 transmission potential and aid prediction and decision-making. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv to identify studies related to COVID-19 published or publicly posted from December 01, 2019 to April 26, 2020 (date of last search) in parallel by two authors (L.W. and Y.L.
PDF JSON Files: document_parses/pdf_json/3d921c03dc23ee850655ddfd9d5ebe3956d70bf8.json
G_ID: a_systematic_review_and_meta_analysis_reveals_long_and_dispersive_incubation_period
S2 ID: 219964116